What Happened?

On November 4, Wisconsin awarded it's 10 electoral votes to Barack Obama.

Obama received 56.32 percent to McCain's 42.2 percent of the vote. In terms of number of votes, Obama racked up 33,143 to McCain's 20,944.

Obama won the majority of Wisconsin voters who said the economy was their top concern, as well as three-in-five women, the majority of men, young voters and both black and white voters, according to the AP exit poll.

Historically, Northeastern Wisconsin has tended to be more politically conservative. That has changed in this election. Brown and Door counties voted Republican in 2000 and 2004, yet both voted for Obama in this election.

In Chippewa County, Obama received 16,236 votes compared McCain's 13,489. Obama, of course, won Wisconsin and its ten electoral votes.
City of Eau Claire voter turnout of 78.9%, while Eau Claire Countyhad a voter turnout of 72%. The record turnout for the city was in 2000 with more than 90% turnout.

Northeastern Wisconsin voters in seven area counties have trended red during the last two presidential elections, according to canvass summaries from the 2000 and 2004 general elections.

In 2000, Brown, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Marinette, Oconto and Shawano counties all went for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney in their run against Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, according to statistics from the state Government Accountability Board.

The trend repeated in 2004, when all seven counties logged more votes for the incumbent Bush/Cheney ticket over Democrats John Kerry and John Edwards, although the Democratic ticket won Wisconsin both years.

"What you're seeing is a similar pattern, which is lots of areas that used to be red are going blue," Kraft said. "A lot of exit polls are telling us it's the economy. People feel at a real loss with the state of the economy — we're in a recession that could be a severe, long-lasting recession. I think people sense that. … They're not at all happy with the current occupant of the White House or with the current Congress. In many ways, Brown County is sort of typical of some of these states we're looking at."

1 Day to Go!!!

With one day left until the election, I think it safe to call Wisconsin for Obama. 

What stated out as a major swing state has now become a state sure to go to Obama. While past elections have been extremely close, in the end, they have ended up going Democratic. Also, recent polling is showing Obama gaining more ground in Wisconsin. Pollster.com has Obama with 52.6% to McCain's 40.9%.

While Republicans are still fighting for the state, igniting a final push this past weekend, they can't seem to fight Obama's funds. Obama has outspent McCain 5-1 in advertising. While the McCain campaign recently pulled out all advertising from Wisconsin, Wisconsin is listed as the number 8 in states where the most money has been spent in the final week. This means Obama is still spending huge amounts of money there. 

While the McCain campaign can continue to try, I believe the Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes will go to Obama. 

Obama Outspends McCain 5-1 in Advertising

According to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, Barack Obama's presidential campaign has outspent John McCain's campaign five to one in television advertising in Wisconsin.

"The advertising advantage held by the Obama campaign this year puts us in uncharted waters. This year the spending us hugely unequal and in some cases the Obama campaign has massive advantages." said Ken Goldstein, a UW-Madison professor who directs the Wisconsin Advertising Project. 

The Project said that in Wisconsin, the McCain campaign spent $202,000, while the Obama campaign spent $1,084,000. After a surge in the polls by Obama in recent weeks, the RNC pulled ads from Wisconsin markets. 

Another interesting fact the project released: Wisconsin is ranked eighth among all states in total advertising spending for the last week of a campaign. 

Local Races

While we have been focusing on the Presidential election, there are some state races that will also be of importance.

One of the most important issues will be which party controls the state Assembly. Republicans hold a 51-47 majority as of right now, but Democrats are hoping to take control.

Democrats lead the state Senate with 18-15 seats. This appears safe for the Democrats.

Green Bay has a very close race for teh 8th Congressional District. Incumbent Democrat Steve Kagen beat Republican John Gard two years ago, but their rematch appears very close. 

Obama has large lead over McCain

Here are four different polls, all showing Obama leading in Wisconsin:

Strategic Vision's Obama vs. McCain WI poll:

conducted Oct. 24-26

Obama: 50%

McCain: 41%

9 points

UW Badger Poll's Obama vs. McCain Wisconsin poll:

conducted Oct. 21-28

Obama: 52%

McCain: 42%

10 points

Research 2000/WISC-TV's Obama vs. McCain WI poll:

conducted Oct. 27-28

Obama: 53%

McCain: 42%

11 points

SurveyUSA's Obama vs. McCain Wisconsin poll:

conducted Oct.28-29

Obama: 55%

McCain: 39%

16 points

Campaigns make last push

Although Obama has a strong lead in Wisconsin, Republicans are not giving up! Volunteers at the La Crosse Republican office are working night and day to rally Republican voters.

"We have hundreds of volunteers this weekend working the phones, we have a lot of volunteers going door-to-door, we've really ratcheted up our volunteer list," said McCain Campaign volunteer Jim Berns, about this past weekend. 

To help McCain pick up ground, Republicans are sending 150 volunteers from other states over to Wisconsin.

On the other side of the election, Obama's Campaign has not slowed up either!

As Obama State Director Dan Kanninen said," We are very well positioned to win this state come Tuesday, but it's important to note that we're taking absolutely nothing for granted." 

Record Voter Turnout in Wisconsin? Not likely.

If a major increase in turnout occurs this election season, it is less likely to be seen in Wisconsin than other states. 

This is because turnout was so high four years ago and the race was more competitive at that time than it is now. Almost three-quarters of eligible Wisconsinites cast ballots in 2004, a level rarely achieved by any state at any time in the last several decades. 

"I have a hard time believing it will be higher than 75 percent. Seventy-five percent means just about everybody who could vote, or who had any inclination to ever vote in their lives, did." says Mark Graul, who directed the '04 Bush effort in Wisconsin.

On the other hand, the state's top election official, Kevin Kennedy, has forecast a turnout rate slightly higher than four years ago.

So who does large turnout favor? Most likely Obama because his field operation is seen as better and because of the potential Obama has to drive up participation among people under 30 and African-Americans.